Blah-Blah, Blah-Blah, Money

Bailout Proposal Gets Hung Up Over Central Issue: Will It Work? (WS Journal)

Yeah, it's a hellova lot of dough. Yeah, it's gonna fall onto you and me (but probably mostly guys like him and him) to pay for it. And yeah, there's the danger that the Treasury might pay too much for these nearly worthless mortgage-related securities; and there's the danger that they might not pay enough for them either, and in turn, fail to jump-start the ailing market. But it's getting harder and harder to borrow on credit. Right now, it's just the big guys who are stuck neither buying or lending. But here's what happens if that trend continues:

• Less credit for homeowners to buy new homes or refinance current mortgages.
  
• Further decline in home prices, as people find it harder and harder to buy a home or keep their current one.
  
• Less credit to buy new cars, borrow money to fix old ones, and hence, get to work.
  
• Less credit for businesses to buy materials and produce goods.
  
• Less economic activity all around.
  
• Slower job growth, as people can't get to work, are busy fighting for their homes, lose their jobs because their employers go under, or a scary combinations of all three.

From the Journal, an op-ed by Kenneth Lewis, one of those overpaid CEOs, who in spite of all that, can still expound coherently why this bailout is good for everyone:

"The proposed rescue legislation accomplishes one simple goal: It provides a buyer (the Treasury) for financial assets that cannot be priced today because the market for such assets has temporarily frozen up, enabling financial institutions to stabilize their balance sheets, regain confidence in the system and one another, and start lending again....In the meantime, consumers [that's people like you and me*] will see value as money starts to flow, home prices stabilize, and the economy avoids what could otherwise be a deep -- and preventable -- recession.

Overblown hype? Probably more than a little. But can we risk sitting on our hands and doing nothing, while we lose the means with which to make home loans, car loans, and business loans which make our jobs work and keep us working?

Mr. Economist, I agree with you. Congress should pass it. And soon.

*Added by me, not that it makes more/less sense with or without it.

Speaking of Sorkin...

Mauren Dowd, who's true calling I'm sure was a Harlequin Romance novelist, had a column last week titled "Aaron Sorkin Conjures a Meeting of Obama and Bartlet." I say 'had' because she really didn't write a word of it. Aaron Sorkin did. Because I can't stand her picture, with that come-hither stare that only a 50-something, post-mid-life crisis, New York male could love (like, say, Aaron Sorkin), I reprint the column in its entirety so that you won't be forced to redirect to the NY Times website. And that scary, scary picture.

Really, Maureen. What were you thinking on photo day? Really.

**************************

BARACK OBAMA knocks on the front door of a 300-year-old New Hampshire farmhouse while his Secret Service detail waits in the driveway. The door opens and OBAMA is standing face to face with former President JED BARTLET.

BARTLET Senator.

OBAMA Mr. President.

BARTLET You seem startled.

OBAMA I didn’t expect you to answer the door yourself.

BARTLET I didn’t expect you to be getting beat by John McCain and a Lancôme rep who thinks “The Flintstones” was based on a true story, so let’s call it even.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET Come on in.

BARTLET leads OBAMA into his study.

BARTLET That was a hell of a convention.

OBAMA Thank you, I was proud of it.

BARTLET I meant the Republicans. The Us versus Them-a-thon. As a Democrat I was surprised to learn that I don’t like small towns, God, people with jobs or America. I’ve been a little out of touch but is there a mandate that the vice president be skilled at field dressing a moose —

OBAMA Look —

BARTLET — and selling Air Force Two on eBay?

OBAMA Joke all you want, Mr. President, but it worked.

BARTLET Imagine my surprise. What can I do for you, kid?

OBAMA I’m interested in your advice.

BARTLET I can’t give it to you.

OBAMA Why not?

BARTLET I’m supporting McCain.

OBAMA Why?

BARTLET He’s promised to eradicate evil and that was always on my “to do” list.

OBAMA O.K. —

BARTLET And he’s surrounded himself, I think, with the best possible team to get us out of an economic crisis. Why, Sarah Palin just said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had “gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers.” Can you spot the error in that statement?

OBAMA Yes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t funded by taxpayers.

BARTLET Well, at least they are now. Kind of reminds you of the time Bush said that Social Security wasn’t a government program. He was only off by a little — Social Security is the largest government program.

OBAMA I appreciate your sense of humor, sir, but I really could use your advice.

BARTLET Well, it seems to me your problem is a lot like the problem I had twice.

OBAMA Which was?

BARTLET A huge number of Americans thought I thought I was superior to them.

OBAMA And?

BARTLET I was.

OBAMA I mean, how did you overcome that?

BARTLET I won’t lie to you, being fictional was a big advantage.

OBAMA What do you mean?

BARTLET I’m a fictional president. You’re dreaming right now, Senator.

OBAMA I’m asleep?

BARTLET Yes, and you’re losing a ton of white women.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET I mean tons.

OBAMA I understand.

BARTLET I didn’t even think there were that many white women.

OBAMA I see the numbers, sir. What do they want from me?

BARTLET I’ve been married to a white woman for 40 years and I still don’t know what she wants from me.

OBAMA How did you do it?

BARTLET Well, I say I’m sorry a lot.

OBAMA I don’t mean your marriage, sir. I mean how did you get America on your side?

BARTLET There again, I didn’t have to be president of America, I just had to be president of the people who watched “The West Wing.”

OBAMA That would make it easier.

BARTLET You’d do very well on NBC. Thursday nights in the old “ER” time slot with “30 Rock” as your lead-in, you’d get seven, seven-five in the demo with a 20, 22 share — you’d be selling $450,000 minutes.

OBAMA What the hell does that mean?

BARTLET TV talk. I thought you’d be interested.

OBAMA I’m not. They pivoted off the argument that I was inexperienced to the criticism that I’m — wait for it — the Messiah, who, by the way, was a community organizer. When I speak I try to lead with inspiration and aptitude. How is that a liability?

BARTLET Because the idea of American exceptionalism doesn’t extend to Americans being exceptional. If you excelled academically and are able to casually use 690 SAT words then you might as well have the press shoot video of you giving the finger to the Statue of Liberty while the Dixie Chicks sing the University of the Taliban fight song. The people who want English to be the official language of the United States are uncomfortable with their leaders being fluent in it.

OBAMA You’re saying race doesn’t have anything to do with it?

BARTLET I wouldn’t go that far. Brains made me look arrogant but they make you look uppity. Plus, if you had a black daughter —

OBAMA I have two.

BARTLET — who was 17 and pregnant and unmarried and the father was a teenager hoping to launch a rap career with “Thug Life” inked across his chest, you’d come in fifth behind Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and a ficus.

OBAMA You’re not cheering me up.

BARTLET Is that what you came here for?

OBAMA No, but it wouldn’t kill you.

BARTLET Have you tried doing a two-hour special or a really good Christmas show?

OBAMA Sir —

BARTLET Hang on. Home run. Right here. Is there any chance you could get Michelle pregnant before the fall sweeps?

OBAMA The problem is we can’t appear angry. Bush called us the angry left. Did you see anyone in Denver who was angry?

BARTLET Well ... let me think. ...We went to war against the wrong country, Osama bin Laden just celebrated his seventh anniversary of not being caught either dead or alive, my family’s less safe than it was eight years ago, we’ve lost trillions of dollars, millions of jobs, thousands of lives and we lost an entire city due to bad weather. So, you know ... I’m a little angry.

OBAMA What would you do?

BARTLET GET ANGRIER! Call them liars, because that’s what they are. Sarah Palin didn’t say “thanks but no thanks” to the Bridge to Nowhere. She just said “Thanks.” You were raised by a single mother on food stamps — where does a guy with eight houses who was legacied into Annapolis get off calling you an elitist? And by the way, if you do nothing else, take that word back. Elite is a good word, it means well above average. I’d ask them what their problem is with excellence. While you’re at it, I want the word “patriot” back. McCain can say that the transcendent issue of our time is the spread of Islamic fanaticism or he can choose a running mate who doesn’t know the Bush doctrine from the Monroe Doctrine, but he can’t do both at the same time and call it patriotic. They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it. McCain decried agents of intolerance, then chose a running mate who had to ask if she was allowed to ban books from a public library. It’s not bad enough she thinks the planet Earth was created in six days 6,000 years ago complete with a man, a woman and a talking snake, she wants schools to teach the rest of our kids to deny geology, anthropology, archaeology and common sense too? It’s not bad enough she’s forcing her own daughter into a loveless marriage to a teenage hood, she wants the rest of us to guide our daughters in that direction too? It’s not enough that a woman shouldn’t have the right to choose, it should be the law of the land that she has to carry and deliver her rapist’s baby too? I don’t know whether or not Governor Palin has the tenacity of a pit bull, but I know for sure she’s got the qualifications of one. And you’re worried about seeming angry? You could eat their lunch, make them cry and tell their mamas about it and God himself would call it restrained. There are times when you are simply required to be impolite. There are times when condescension is called for!

OBAMA Good to get that off your chest?

BARTLET Am I keeping you from something?

OBAMA Well, it’s not as if I didn’t know all of that and it took you like 20 minutes to say.

BARTLET I know, I have a problem, but admitting it is the first step.

OBAMA What’s the second step?

BARTLET I don’t care.

OBAMA So what about hope? Chuck it for outrage and put-downs?

BARTLET No. You’re elite, you can do both. Four weeks ago you had the best week of your campaign, followed — granted, inexplicably — by the worst week of your campaign. And you’re still in a statistical dead heat. You’re a 47-year-old black man with a foreign-sounding name who went to Harvard and thinks devotion to your country and lapel pins aren’t the same thing and you’re in a statistical tie with a war hero and a Cinemax heroine. To these aged eyes, Senator, that’s what progress looks like. You guys got four debates. Get out of my house and go back to work.

OBAMA Wait, what is it you always used to say? When you hit a bump on the show and your people were down and frustrated? You’d give them a pep talk and then you’d always end it with something. What was it ...?

BARTLET “Break’s over.”

******************************

Sorkinized!

Well they're no Jed Bartlett, that's for sure

 

Yes, yes, the sky is falling, but there's still an election going on. So dagnabbit, let's do this.

From the NY Times: In Candidates, 2 Approaches to Wall Street

With both candidates trying to convince America that they hold the answers to all our financial woes, it's worth noting that neither man has much more economic experience than you or I. Both guys have their strengths, to be sure. It's just the economy isn't one of them. From the Times: 

"One reason for both men’s sketchy records on financial issues is that neither has been a member of the Senate Banking Committee, which has oversight of the industry and its regulators. Under both parties’ leadership, the committee often has been a graveyard for proposals opposed by lobbyists for financial institutions, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which last week were forced into government conservatorships.

Industry lobbyists’ success in killing such regulations meant senators outside the banking panel did not have to take a stand on them."

This shouldn't surprise us. It's typical Washington-think: "If it's not up for a vote, why should I care?" McCain seems to be toeing the party line as closely as possible, allowing for greater regulation during times of crises, to be replaced by deregulation as soon as the market rights itself (with nary a thank you to Uncle Sam).

What's wrong with this thinking is that it's essentially reactive. By default, it does nothing to prevent something like this from happening again. Greater regulation in response to the subprime mortgage fiasco is fine and dandy, but we really could have used it six years ago when lenders were handing out shady home loans like candy. McCain, in deference to his esteemed free market colleagues, doesn't seem to get this.

And while Obama has little more economic experience than McCain, at least he sees the inherent value in (continued) government oversight over profit-hungry financial institutions. In that sense, Obama is the truer Conservative on the matter. Conservative because he recognises the depravity of humans to put their personal interests over the interests of others. Conservative because he's not afraid to use established power to keep unchecked greed in check.

{/End quasi-Sorkin clap-trap}

In case you missed it...

Tina Fey returned to SNL last night to play Joe Biden Sarah Palin Tina Fey with-a-Canadian-accent. Hot!

*Sigh* Tina Fey. The more I see fake versions of Sarah Palin, the more I love her despite her complete lack of vice-presidential credentials.

In what respect, Charlie?

Don't worry Sarah Palin, I don't really understand the Bush Doctrine either. And neither do people who actually work/worked for President Bush.

Many Versions of 'Bush Doctrine' (Washington Post)

One of my favorite quotes from the piece comes from Philip Zelikow, who worked for the White House and the State Department under the president:

"I actually never thought there was a Bush doctrine...Indeed, I believe the assertion that there is such a doctrine lends greater coherence to the administration's policies than they deserve."

Zing!

Two Americas

One that thinks this picture is brimming with awesomeness, and one that is bewildered and crapping their pants.

Seriously. Is the political Left really this far out of touch from the average American? I mean, don't we all don crazy Viking hats every other Thursday? From the Economist:

Gloria Steinem, the founder of Ms magazine, says that “Palin shares nothing but a chromosome with Clinton”. Kim Gandy, the president of the National Organisation of Women, dismisses her as a “woman who opposes women’s rights”. Debbie Dingell, a leading Michigan Democrat, said that women felt insulted by the choice. Joe Biden says that, if Mrs Palin becomes the first female vice-president, it will be a “backward step for women”. “Eighteen million cracks”, says the New Republic, (referring to Mrs Clinton’s 18m votes and the glass ceiling) “and one crackpot.”

Sometimes I think "the culture wars" are just lazy journalism. Americans agree more often than we disagree, right? We all bleed red, white and blue. We would never criticize someone simply because we don't understand them or their values, right?

Right?!?!

Good job alienating 50 million Americans Biden. Just because President Bush does it every other day doesn't make it right.

Obamaculator

Change we can all believe in, even if we vote for the other guy (unless you're a richie).

While we've been discussing how you shouldn't trust pollsters, and how voting for one of the Big Two is like voting for ranch dressing vs. thousand island*, here is a story that ignores both from the Nation.

According to a recent Gallop poll, half of Americans expect their tax burden to rise if Senator Obama is elected. Not so according to Tax Policy Center -- an independent, non-partisan off-shoot of the center-sometimes-center-left Brookings Institution -- whose latest study finds that 95% of American families would receive a tax cut under Obama's plan:

Obama would give larger tax cuts to low- and moderate-income households and pay some of the cost by raising taxes on high-income taxpayers. In contrast, McCain would cut taxes across the board and give the biggest cuts to the highest-income households.

To find out how you would benefit under Obama's plan, check out Obamataxcut.com, a neat-o tax-cut calculator based on three simple questions. And no, not those questions three.

*Which makes sense to me, because both taste terrible; you on the other hand might love ranch, or Republicans.

Ron Paul Is Nuts!

And I'm 90% with him.

Paul: Reject the major parties, go for a third (AP)

"The strongest message can be sent by rejecting the two party system," Paul said in prepared remarks obtained by The Associated Press. "This can be accomplished by voting for one of the non-establishment, principled candidates.

He recommended Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party, former Georgia Republican Rep. Bob Barr of the Libertarian Party, former Georgia Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party and possibly others."

I'm so fed if with the two-party crap-fest everyone else is gagga over that this kind of news makes me want to kiss Ron Paul on the mouth (chastely and platonicly, natch). Playing along for the moment, here are my thoughts on the aforementioned candidates.

1) Chuck Baldwin: This guy scares the bejebus out of me. He has ties to both the Moral Majority and the 9/11 Truth Movement. Also, he left the Republican party in 2000 because he felt GW Bush was too liberal. Yikes. I grew up with folks like this, and while I love them to death, I have no desire for them to run for president. Sorry, Freedom Farm.

2) Bob Barr: Barr is one cool cat (see: Glasses). He grew up travelling the globe; worked for the CIA; served as the most conservative congressman ever; supported the War on Drugs, the Patriot Act,  and the Iraq War before he was against them all; and now is a bonafide Libertarian. I can't tell if he's genuiely a new creation (politically speaking), but man, those glasses!

3) Cynthia McKinney: According to USA Today (which I trust forever and ever amen), Cynthia McKinney, a former Democtraic Congresswomen from Georgia, lost her seat in 2002 because of crossover voting from Republicans in the Democratic primary (they allow it). Additionally, she sort of suggested that President Bush knew about the 9/11 attacks before they happened.

Ouch.

BUT, she hates depleted uranium, likes to make fun of Al Gore, has been extremely vocal about the plight of Katrina victims, and praised Hugo Chavez in her concession speech after she lost her seat in Congress for the second time. Come on, three out of four, right?

4) Ralph Nader: He's not on Ron Paul's list, but I'd rather sit at his feat than worship at the Church of Obama or Cranky-Pants McCain. Independent Lens ran a doc on him a while back that opened my eyes to all the crap he's gone through over the years. I mean, if you want to vote for a prophet for president, you don't have to look further than Nader. Hyperbole? Yes! Truth? Hells yes!!!1!11!

Polls, Polly! Polls!

The latest Post/ABC poll shows that John McCain has pulled up even with Barack Obama in the race for president, 49 to 47 percent, with a sampling error of +/- four points. In fact, a whole slew of polls held over the weekend say essentially the same thing: McCain got quite the post-convention bump, anywhere from 4-13 percentage points depending on who you believe.

A couple of things to ruminate on though.

1) Both Slate.com and On the Media point out that the old phone-interview model tends to  underrepresent those who only own a cellphone. Conventional wisdom says that cellphone only voters (who live without a landline) tend to be younger, and tend to lean left. Could that mean a percentage point or two for Obama that will remain unaccounted for until November?

2) Pollsters tend to force undecided participants to choose a side. Polls with a large number of undecided don't "sell" well. We want our two-party presidential polls to add up to nearly 100. However, as David Moore, a former senior editor at Gallop for 13 years, points out:

"One can take a look, for example, at the recent Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. They asked the question - if the election were held today, who you would you vote for, you know, Barack Obama or John McCain? They find that somewhere around 95 percent of the people have made up their mind.

But, of course, the election’s not being held today, so it’s a hypothetical race. The way you could ask the question is, do you support Obama, do you support McCain, or haven't you made up your mind yet? Right now there are probably around 35 to 40 percent of voters who are undecided.

Well, I think the reason the media pollsters don't want to emphasize the undecided vote is that they think the media, the journalists, would not be interested in a poll that said there are 40 percent of the people undecided. They’d say - but gee, if people haven't begun to just make up their minds yet, or such a large segment, why don't we wait and start polling later?"

That, of course, would put pollsters out of a job. Even by a more conservative estimate, Slate's Paul Maslin estimates the number of undecideds at around 10 percent, which means either candidate still has a good chance of pulling away from the statistical dead heat we're in right now.

All that to say, with the debates ahead (not to mention increasing tensions in Afghanistan), it's still anyone's game.

Free Choice and Choosing Rightly

What does it mean to choose?

In the wake of last week's revelation that Sarah Palin's daughter Bristol "chose" to have her baby at age 17, much has been made in progressive circles that Bristol had the right to choose. One such example from the Huffington Post:

There was one overlooked part of Sarah Palin's announcement of her daughter's pregnancy. She said that her daughter had decided to carry the child to term. She later remarked that no one had pressured her daughter to do so.

I take Sarah at her word. Is it not wonderful, and will this not be a happier baby and marital circumstance, that they all had these unpressured choices? The issue is not abortion vs carrying to term, it is who gets to make that choice. Sarah Palin would have the government choose. My vote is for Bristol Palin.

What scares me the most about the abortion debate is that there is no more real debate on the issue. We've walled ourselves into two camps: those who believe in the right to choose, and those who believe there is really only one choice. We've stopped debating, and decided that shouting real loud is more cathartic and fun.

Maybe we ought to review the orginal debate. On the one side, Pro-choice/abortion advocates frame the issue thusly: abortion is a choice best left to individuals, not the government. On face value, it's a great libertarian argument. Why should the government get involved in medical decisions best left to individuals and the family?

The argument cracks, however, when you frame the debate as the Anti-abortion/choice camp does: abortion is, at its core, murder. Why should the government get involved? Because the government has been tasked to protect the inalienable rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness of all Americans; especially, it could be argued, those Americans who are marginalized, oppressed, and out of sight.

With that being said, the debate over Bristol Palin having a choice vs. making the right choice amounts to two side shouting "CHOICE" at each other without first agreeing what "choice" means. For the left, "choice" is the ability to choose what's best for the individual-- it's a celebration of the free will of the individual. For the right, "choice" is the ability to choose rightly -- it's a celebration of the choice to put the rights of the unborn over the physical pain, emotional turmoil, and social pressures of pregnancy and birth.

This is why politicos and pundits ought to shut up four-fifths of the time when they have the urge to speak about abortion and choice. The two sides are using such wildly different vocabularies that only under careful moderation can any headway be made. We need facilitators of debate, not talking-heads shouting at each other for ratings or political points.

What I wish progressives would understand is that there are many thinking-religious-types who want to see change in Washington, who can stand with progressives on issues like health care, the economy, the environment, crime, drug policy, campaign finance reform and America's foreign policy. But every time progressives take a swipe at how if Sarah Palin had her way, her daughter wouldn't have had the ability to choose in the first place, they miss the point:

Free choice is a wonderful concept. But as soon it impedes on the rights of others, choice can and should be limited. I can choose to drive my car to the grocery store, yet if I choose to drive down on the left side of the road, I break the law. I can choose to own a gun to protect my home from burglars, yet if I choose to shoot someone on the street for no reason, I break the law.

When thinking-religious-types hear from talking-heads that Palin's a hypocrite because she praises her daughter's choice but doesn't want to allow choice in the first place, they hear something like this: Palin's a hypocrite because she praises Americans when they don't kill their co-workers over missed deadlines but wants to legislate against Americans killing their co-workers over missed deadlines. Hypocrite city!

I don't know how else to say it, but every time progressives bring up this BS argument, I find myself one step closer to voting for Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, or no one at all.